At the 2026 Semafor World Economy Summit in Washington, D.C. last week, Indeed joined global leaders on stage and in conversation at a moment when the future of work is being defined largely by artificial intelligence.

Across these interactions, we focused on an issue we believe is not getting enough attention: the shrinking workforce.

Throughout developed economies, demographic trends are steadily reducing the number of available workers. At the same time, AI is accelerating how jobs are changing. Together, these forces are creating a more complex labor market, where the challenge is not only how work evolves, but how effectively people are matched to it. That dynamic is already taking shape, and it is becoming one of the most important issues for business leaders to understand.

The bigger force: a shrinking workforce

In conversation with Semafor’s Clay Chandler, Indeed CEO Hisayuki “Deko” Idekoba made the case directly: “What is happening is big demographic change, an aging labor market… that is actually way bigger impact than AI impact today.”

Underscoring the urgency of the shrinking workforce due to demographics and tighter immigration policies, Deko noted, “We’re going to have 20 million less workers in the next 15 years, and 80% of that is due to aging population[s].” Drawing on his experience leading a Japanese company, he pointed to a preview of what’s ahead. Japan has already gone from roughly five working-age adults per retiree to just two. The rest of the developed world is moving in the same direction, faster than most leaders appreciate.

This is not a future scenario; it is a structural shift already underway.

A labor market defined by mismatch

As these forces converge, a more fundamental challenge is becoming clear. AI is changing the skills required for work, while demographic trends are tightening the labor supply. The result is a growing disconnect between the roles employers need to fill and the talent available to fill them. 

We see this in our data. As Indeed Hiring Lab Director of Economic Research Laura Ullrich explained on stage, “The labor market is undoubtedly cooling, but it’s not collapsing.” Job postings have returned to roughly pre-pandemic levels, but hiring is not getting easier. “What we’re seeing is that postings are remaining active longer. It’s taking longer for companies to hire,” she noted.

Our data also challenges common assumptions about AI. Ullrich shared, “The jobs that are increasingly strongest, a lot of them do have AI or machine learning in the title. Like AI engineer, machine learning specialist. However, the jobs that are decreasing the fastest are not necessarily jobs that are highly exposed to AI. Outside of tech, we’re not seeing a lot of that.” In fact, in the last six months, jobs most highly exposed to AI are the fastest growing.

Indeed Hiring Lab's Laura Ullrich speaks at the Semafor World Economy Summit 2026

At the same time, the rise of AI tools is increasing application volume, often adding noise. As Deko stated, “Hiring processes should be easier, simpler, faster, because it’s just good for society.”

In a labor market shaped by both disruption and constraint, the ability to match talent to opportunity becomes more critical, not less.

This is where Indeed’s focused. As a global two-sided marketplace, Indeed is focused on improving how people and jobs connect in real time. With 27 hires per minute on the platform, we seek to deliver better matches and ultimately, better outcomes.

From insight to execution

Alongside our mainstage sessions, our team met with business leaders to translate these insights into action.

The message was consistent: in a tighter, more complex labor market, hiring efficiency is a strategic lever. Even marginal improvements, from reducing the time spent reviewing each resume to better candidate prioritization, can unlock meaningful gains in speed, cost, and quality at scale.

What we heard throughout the Summit reinforced a broader shift. The question is no longer just how technology will change jobs. It is how organizations will adapt to a labor market where talent is both evolving and increasingly scarce.

For leaders, this is a moment to build. This means more adaptive hiring strategies, stronger pipelines, and systems that match people to jobs with greater precision. 

The leaders who act on that now will be better positioned for what comes next.





Photos by Kristoffer Tripplaar & Annabelle Gordon for Semafor