AUSTIN, TX (August 5, 2026) – Indeed, the world’s #1 job siteComscore, Total Visits, March 2026 and a leading hiring platform, today launched the Indeed Hiring Lab Labor Market Outlook Survey, a quarterly panel conducted with Pulsenomics that brings together more than 100 economists and subject matter experts to share their expectations for the U.S. labor market and assess emerging forces shaping work. Paired with Indeed’s real-time labor market data, their perspectives will help employers, investors, and policymakers anticipate changes in hiring, wages, and skills.

Each quarter, members of this newly formed expert panel will refresh their outlook for the U.S.unemployment rate and Indeed Job Postings Index (JPI)—a daily measure of hiring demand based on the level of job postings on Indeed—over multiple time horizons, while examining a timely labor market issue: AI’s expected impact on employment, wages, and productivity. 

Initial results point to a cooling labor market in the midst of structural change:

  • Hiring demand: The panel’s mean projection calls for the Indeed Job Postings Index to decline 1.4% from June 2026 through June 2027.
  • Unemployment: On average, economists project the unemployment rate to stand at 4.3% in July 2026 and approximately 4.4% in both December 2026 and June 2027.
  • White-collar wages: Fifty-seven percent expect AI to put downward pressure on the median real wages of college-educated workers over the next 12 months.
  • Worker displacement: Sixty-one percent say their concern about AI’s potential to displace college-educated workers has increased compared with one year ago.
  • Productivity: Nearly all respondents (99%) expect AI to enhance U.S. labor productivity over the next three years, while 29% anticipate a substantial or transformative improvement.

“AI is changing how work gets done faster than its full effects can be measured,” said Laura Ullrich, director of economic research at Indeed. “Indeed’s data can show us where hiring is today; pairing it with expert projections helps us see what’s coming. That combination lets leaders separate short-term volatility from structural change, and make better decisions about where to invest, hire and build skills.”

The occupational results point to a labor market in transition rather than a simple technology-versus-jobs story. Economists most often identified software development, administrative assistance, and banking and finance as the areas likely to see the largest declines in job postings over the next 12 months. Personal care and home health, nursing, and IT infrastructure, operations and support were most often cited for the largest gains.

Software development reflects AI’s mixed impact. While 23% of respondents identified it as the occupation most likely to experience AI-driven job losses, it ranked third for expected job gains, behind IT infrastructure, operations and support, and data and analytics.

“At a time when AI and other structural forces are reshaping the labor market, a single snapshot simply isn’t enough,” said Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics. “This recurring panel study will allow us to track how expectations among our expert panelists evolve over time, providing a deeper understanding of where they agree, where they diverge, and how their views respond to changing economic conditions and emerging trends.”

This prestigious panel has drawn economists from leading universities and financial institutions, bringing a range of academic and market perspectives to each quarterly labor market outlook update. Participant affiliations include Harvard, Princeton, Stanford and MIT, as well as Bank of America, Moody’s Analytics, S&P Global Ratings and RBC Global Asset Management. Panelists participate in their individual capacities, and their views do not necessarily represent their affiliated organizations.

About the Indeed Hiring Lab Labor Market Outlook Survey

The Q2 2026 Indeed Hiring Lab Labor Market Outlook Survey was conducted by Pulsenomics, LLC, on behalf of Indeed between June 29th and July 10th, 2026. All 120 respondents provided multi-horizon projections for both the Indeed Job Postings Index and the unemployment rate; response counts for the AI questions ranged from 83 to 118. Results are reported as panel means or percentages of valid responses, depending on the question. Panelists were not required to answer all questions, and were given an option to keep their individual responses confidential. Confidential responses will not be published, but are included in the aggregate findings. Projections and opinions are estimates, may change and are provided for informational purposes only.

About Indeed

More people get jobs on Indeed than anywhere else. As the world’s #1 job site (Comscore, Total Visits, March 2026), Indeed is a global hiring platform connecting over 665 million Job Seeker Profiles with 3.5 million employers across more than 60 countries. Indeed uses AI and real-time data to match people with relevant opportunities and help employers hire faster. 

With platforms including Glassdoor and Indeed Flex, Indeed is reshaping how people discover jobs, research companies, and access flexible work. Indeed is a subsidiary of Recruit Holdings, a global leader in HR technology and business solutions dedicated to simplifying hiring and transforming the world of work.

About Pulsenomics

Pulsenomics® is an independent research and index product development firm that leverages expertise in data analytics, opinion research, financial markets, and economics to deliver insight and market intelligence to institutional clients, partners, and the public at large. To learn more, visit pulsenomics.com.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Indeed Hiring Lab Labor Market Outlook Survey?

The Indeed Hiring Lab Labor Market Outlook Survey is a quarterly U.S. labor market outlook panel produced by Indeed Hiring Lab in partnership with Pulsenomics, LLC. Each quarter, more than 100 economists and subject matter experts share projections for the U.S. unemployment rate and the Indeed Job Postings Index (JPI)—a daily measure of hiring demand based on the level of job postings on Indeed—while assessing a timely issue shaping work. Paired with Indeed’s real-time labor market data, these perspectives can help employers, investors and policymakers anticipate changes in hiring, wages and skills. The inaugural Q2 2026 survey examined AI’s expected impact on employment, wages and productivity.

What is the Indeed Job Postings Index?

The Indeed Job Postings Index, or JPI, measures changes in job posting levels on Indeed over time and serves as the survey’s benchmark for hiring demand. A rising JPI generally indicates stronger hiring demand, while a declining JPI indicates softer demand. 

What did economists project in the Q2 2026 survey?

The panel’s mean projection calls for the Indeed Job Postings Index to decline 1.4% from June 2026 through June 2027. Economists expect unemployment of 4.3% in July 2026 and approximately 4.4% in December 2026 and June 2027. Fifty-seven percent expect AI to put downward pressure on the median real wages of college-educated workers, while 99% expect AI to enhance U.S. labor productivity over the next three years. Twenty-nine percent anticipate a substantial or transformative productivity improvement.

Who participates in the panel?

The panel includes economists and labor market experts from academia, financial institutions, research organizations and other parts of the private sector.

How do the survey projections relate to Indeed Hiring Lab’s own labor market outlook?

The Indeed Job Postings Index (JPI) and the findings, projections, and opinions expressed in the Indeed Hiring Lab Labor Market Outlook Survey are provided for informational purposes only and are not indicative of the potential revenue, earnings, or financial performance of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Survey results, projections, and labor market data referenced herein reflect the views of survey panelists and Indeed’s Hiring Lab researchers at the time of publication; they represent estimates that may change and may differ materially from Indeed’s or Recruit’s own assessments, forward-looking statements, or actual results. Nothing contained herein should be viewed as an indicator of the performance of Indeed or Recruit, or construed as investment advice. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.