AUSTIN, TX (September 24, 2026) – Indeed, the world’s #1 job siteComscore, Total Visits, March 2026 and a leading hiring platform, today released the Q3 Indeed Hiring Lab Labor Market Outlook Survey. This quarterly survey, conducted with Pulsenomics, gathered more than 120 economists and subject matter experts to share their expectations for the U.S. labor market through the next year and assess emerging forces shaping work. 

Each quarter, members of this expert panel provide their outlook for the U.S. unemployment rate and Indeed Job Postings Index (JPI)—a daily measure of hiring demand based on the number of job postings on Indeed. In Q3, the panel members considered AI’s expected impact on employment, wages, and productivity. 

The panel expects slight near-term recovery, followed by softening over the next 12 months:

  • Hiring demand: The panel expects a slight improvement in postings (up 0.13%) quarter-over-quarter, and the mean projection calls for the Indeed JPI to decline less than 1% from September 2026 through September 2027. 
  • Unemployment: On average, economists project the unemployment rate will be at 4.1% in September 2026, rising to 4.2% in December 2026, and 4.3% by September 2027.
  • White-collar wages: 64% percent expect AI to put downward pressure on the median real wages of college-educated workers over the next 12 months, up from 57% last quarter, one of  the most meaningful shifts in sentiment about AI’s impact.
  • Worker displacement: 58% percent say their concern about AI’s potential to displace college-educated workers has increased compared with one year ago.
  • Productivity: Q3 showed cooling sentiment toward AI’s impact on labor productivity. Nearly half of experts (47%) expect AI to moderately enhance U.S. labor productivity over the next three years, while nearly a third expect a substantial or transformative impact. This is a meaningful and growing minority compared to last quarter.

“AI is a polarizing topic in the debate of job creation versus displacement,” said Laura Ullrich, director of economic research at Indeed. “While Indeed data shows a recent rebound in AI-exposed job postings, we expect hiring demand to remain moderate over the coming year as organizations shift from initial tool experimentation to structural integration. We’ll be watching to see if these posting gains reflect sustainable job growth or short-term shifts as teams adapt. Even as overall growth expectations temper, rising wage concerns show that AI’s operational impact is already taking hold.”

AI’s expected impact as a threat or enabler varies by occupation. Economists most often identified administrative assistance, software development, and data and analytics as the areas likely to see the largest declines in job postings over the next 12 months. On the other hand, IT infrastructure, operations and support, software development, and data & analytics were most often cited for the largest gains. The list overlap is a signal that panelists remain genuinely split on whether AI represents a headwind or tailwind for tech hiring. Indeed Hiring Lab research shows that although software development job postings remain below their baseline, they’ve been rebounding over the past year. 

“AI is reshaping the labor market, and our panel’s concern is intensifying on two fronts at once,” said Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics. “The share of experts expecting downward pressure in the coming year on real wages for college-educated workers rose from 57% to 64% in just the past quarter. Over the same period, a majority — 58% — continue to say their assessment of AI-driven displacement risk for this group has increased in the past 12 months. Rather than one risk emerging ahead of the other, both are rising in tandem — a sign that employers and policymakers should watch wage and employment effects together, not as sequential stages.”

About the Indeed Hiring Lab Labor Market Outlook Survey

The Q3 2026 Indeed Hiring Lab Labor Market Outlook Survey was conducted by Pulsenomics, LLC, on behalf of Indeed between September 8 and September 16, 2026; 123 individual panelists answered at least one question in the survey. Results are reported as panel means or percentages of valid responses, depending on the question. Panelists were not required to answer all questions, and were given an option to keep their individual responses confidential. Confidential responses will not be published, but are included in the aggregate findings. Projections and opinions are estimates, may change, and are provided for informational purposes only. Panelists participate in their individual capacities, and their views do not necessarily represent their affiliated organizations.

About Indeed

More people get jobs on Indeed than anywhere else. As the world’s #1 job site (Comscore, Total Visits, March 2026), Indeed is a global hiring platform connecting over 685 million Job Seeker Profiles with 3.5 million employers across more than 60 countries. Indeed uses AI and real-time data to match people with relevant opportunities and help employers hire faster. 

With platforms including Glassdoor and Indeed Flex, Indeed is reshaping how people discover jobs, research companies, and access flexible work. Indeed is a subsidiary of Recruit Holdings, a global leader in HR technology and business solutions dedicated to simplifying hiring and transforming the world of work.

About Pulsenomics

Pulsenomics® is an independent research and index product development firm that leverages expertise in data analytics, opinion research, financial markets, and economics to deliver insight and market intelligence to institutional clients, partners, and the public at large. To learn more, visit pulsenomics.com.