The Vanishing Entry-Level Role — and How to Save It

Devon Jennings, a talent acquisition marketing manager, landed his first job based on experience from basic coursework and a handful of internships. His early workload was dominated by manual tasks now typically handled by AI. “In fact, if we were hiring for that same role today, we’d expect a new graduate to accomplish far more than I could when I started, and we'd expect them to use AI as part of their workflow,” he reflects.

But someone in Devon’s place today may not even make it that far. 

Indeed Hiring Lab data shows that intern postings have reached their lowest point since 2020, and junior-level job postings have fallen 7% year-over-year. This leaves new workforce entrants struggling to get a foot in the door, now accounting for 85% of the total rise in unemployment. In contrast, senior-level postings have risen 4%.

With a massive labor shortage projected by 2040, entry-level career ramps are collapsing right when employers need to expand them most. So what happens if we’re automating away the very experience required to reach the senior level?

Lois Alexis-Collins, chief people officer at Chipotle, rejects the notion that entry roles are destined for extinction. “AI may take over some of the skills that once were entry-level. But we can take the same person and enhance their skills without eliminating the role itself,” she says. Her approach seems to pay off — last year, Chipotle awarded an impressive 23,000 internal promotions.

Similarly, at B2B sales outsourcing company MarketStar, Jennings has built pathways connecting high schoolers to sales roles and supported state-backed return-to-work programs. As he puts it: “If you want a sustainable talent pipeline, finding great candidates is only the first step. You have to help build the skills you want to hire.”

Together with research from Harvard Business School (HBS) Professor Joseph Fuller, these leaders share four practical strategies to preserve early-career pathways and protect future leadership pipelines.

1. Redesign early roles to build ‘contextual intelligence’

Speaking at the most recent Indeed FutureWorks event, Fuller explained that while AI excels at task-level execution, human leadership relies on what he calls “contextual intelligence” — the nuanced understanding of team dynamics, organizational culture, market subtleties and regulatory environments.

The key is teaching early-career talent how to build contextual intelligence first, then use AI tools to elevate it. 

“A lot of technical skills can be taught internally,” says Alexis-Collins. “What’s harder to teach are the human capabilities like grit, curiosity and a willingness to learn. When you give high-potential junior hires AI tools, you accelerate their ability to apply those human traits where they matter most.”

Jennings calls this balance “AI plus AI” — artificial intelligence plus actual intelligence. The goal isn't just tool proficiency, but using automation to free up valuable time that can be better spent on exercising critical thought and task execution to gain confidence and independence early on.

For workers, that means learning by doing rather than waiting for a formal training program. “AI is learning with your fingers, not your brain,” Fuller says, quoting HBS colleague Mitchell Weiss. As AI changes more jobs, workers who begin experimenting thoughtfully with the tools now may be better prepared to recognize where they can add uniquely human judgment.

2. Shift to pre-employment ‘rent-to-own’ pipelines

Traditional hiring proxies are failing both employers and candidates. Indeed research¹ shows that 54% of job seekers feel employers evaluate them strictly on resume pedigree rather than their overall potential.

To break this cycle, Professor Fuller advocates expanding work-based learning opportunities before full-time hiring, creating a low-risk "rent-to-own" evaluation period. “We need to start having a pre-employment career path where we're both building that contextual intelligence, but also using it as evaluation,” he says. 

Importantly, Fuller cautions that these opportunities must pay fairly and mark the beginning of a long-term employment relationship to ensure that work-based learning doesn’t become a wealth filter or a source of low-cost labor.

When candidates lack traditional resume credentials, Jennings relies on behavioral interviewing to spot raw potential. To gauge coachability, his team practices real-time feedback. During a sales role-play exercise, for example, hiring managers intentionally give the candidate live feedback and ask them to repeat the pitch immediately.

“It doesn’t really matter how good that initial pitch is,” Jennings says. “What matters is that we see if you’re able to improve based on feedback. If you are, then you’re somebody we can train to do what we need you to do.”

MarketStar pairs this evaluation model with three practical pipeline initiatives:

• University curriculum exchange panels: Partnering with higher education leaders to ensure academic coursework aligns with current industry skill needs.
• High school tech sales pathways: Providing high school students with hands-on project experience for Fortune 500 clients, industry certifications and guaranteed job interviews upon graduation. The program builds a direct bridge to a salaried role with tuition assistance by age 18.
• State-funded return-to-work programs: Offering grant-supported training programs for adults re-entering the workforce, complete with guaranteed interviews upon completion.

3. Structure visible career pathing

In an Indeed survey with YouGov, nearly two-thirds of U.S. job seekers said they place significant weight on a company’s reputation for helping employees reach their maximum potential.² While a track record for development can help earn a candidate’s consideration, it still requires visible proof — whether that be clearly outlined career paths, learning opportunities, mentorship programs or employee stories.

Alexis-Collins attributes Chipotle’s high internal promotion rate, in part, to transparent career pathing from the very beginning. Every restaurant posts a visual roadmap showing a step-by-step journey from back-of-house crew member all the way to regional vice president.

“On day one, you can come in and know what your boss does, what your boss’s boss does, how that journey continues and the skills you need to get there,” she says. “Many of my senior operators started in entry-level roles, and we taught them internally.”

Professor Fuller recommends establishing twin-track career models — one tailored for management leadership and another for deep technical specialization. These strategies can help employees cultivate deep organizational expertise, regardless of their preferred path. He points out that rigid time-in-role requirements can drive strong performers elsewhere if they’re ready to advance. Giving managers discretion to weigh performance, potential and business need can support advancement decisions without relying solely on tenure.

Beyond vertical ladders, other organizations are creating nonlinear career lattices or webs, allowing talent to progress more dynamically in their careers based on adjacent skills, employee interest and organizational need. 

“People quit lousy bosses, not lousy companies.”

— Joseph Fuller, Professor, Harvard Business School

4. Treat retention as the ultimate goal

Development programs can also help mitigate churn, which will be critical as available talent becomes scarcer. “Because contextual intelligence is going to be so critical, retention is going to be the absolute most important objective,” Fuller says.

For example, Chipotle finds that employees who participate in its formal internal development programs aren’t just more likely to be promoted but also stick around longer.

Fuller cautions against treating turnover as inevitable. Employers can test those assumptions by investigating why people leave or reconsidering job design and advancement opportunities. Understanding those reasons can help target retention efforts, including in two key areas:

• Toxic management: “People quit lousy bosses, not lousy companies,” he says. A regular audit of frontline management quality can help identify supervisors who prioritize short-term metrics at the expense of workplace culture. That’s an opportunity for retraining.
• Caregiving benefits: Personal life pressures and caregiving obligations remain major reasons for unexpected departures among rising talent — whether that’s for new families with young children or the “sandwich generation” caring for aging family members. Offering structured caregiving support can help high-potential employees stay on track for senior roles.

AI is a transformative tool for creating efficiencies, but it cannot replicate the institutional memory, human empathy and practical judgment that turn early-career recruits into executive leaders.

“The goal shouldn't be to hire fewer early-career professionals,” says Jennings. “It should be to help them become productive faster while still creating space for learning and growth.”

By elevating entry-level roles, broadening pre-employment pathways and mapping clear internal mobility, you can help build the leadership your organization needs to thrive for decades.

¹Base: Total New Entrants (650), Trade (95), 4-year-degree (188). J2: Thinking about your current or recent job search experience, where would you place yourself? / J6: ...Now, thinking a bit more specifically, if you could only choose five, which of these feel like the biggest pain points in the job search process?

²Indeed Survey with YouGov 2025, total N=1,014 job seekers and 511 employers in the U.S.

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